Discussion: View Thread

Loopy is very cool and Rick has used it to good advantage to pull out some assumptions.  However, I found the plus and minus signs a bit confusing as well as the descriptions as they seem to conflate recent trends with likely future trends:

I haven't modified the model, and perhaps there is no need to as, for example, if funding does go up (down) then administrative costs will indeed go up (down) - there is a positive correlation.  But I suggest we reword the assumptions  so as to be in line with where things appear to be heading as Rick had already done with the first and last three assumptions.

Here is my go at restating Rick's model.

• Covid-19 will increase unemployment
• Unemployment cuts university funding (particularly for state supported institutions and assuming we do not see a big rise in tuition revenue from out of work students)
• Less funding will  (should) result in less administrators and a less complex organization
• Administive ranks have increased at a significantly faster rate than faculty over the last few decades as universities have taken on more activities and services.
• Less funding means less faculty hiring
• Less faculty means higher faculty teaching loads in terms of classes taught or class sizes
• Higher faculty loads reduce research productivity 
• Higher unemployment will result in more high school graduates opting for university 
• More students means more classes
• More classes will create more graduates.  

Of course, the funding model for most universities is much more varied with alumni giving, sports revenues, endowment income, and so on factoring in.  But the outcome is predictably the same  - less funding (revenues) should mean less administration and reductions in faculty.  However, in another posting ( https://aisnet.org/forums/posts.aspx?group=&topic=1546465&page=1&hhSearchTerms=#post_1546470 ) Jason Thatcher argues that in his experience, faculty have been hurt more than administrators - perhaps because it is easier to eliminate faculty than climbing walls or career services.  Much of the complexity is baked in.  As the proportion of tenured and tenure track faculty have steadily given way to legions of adjuncts, the faculty have become the more malleable piece of the puzzle.